Temperature Prediction Market Data
Tick-by-tick trades and L2 order-book depth for 167 Temperature series on Kalshi & Polymarket & predict.fun — daily high temperature in NYC, London, Paris, Seoul, Chicago, Miami, LA and 30 more cities, hourly NYC/DC/Chicago temperature, where will it rain. 24,504 series-days covering December 2025 – present; 6.5M trades · $47.2M turnover over the last 30 captured days. Every contract captured co-located with nanosecond venue and receive timestamps — sold as day bundles, €1 per day, bought as a guest with instant download.
Temperature on Kalshi & Polymarket & predict.fun
Daily high-temperature ladders for 35+ cities on Kalshi and Polymarket, hourly directional temperature and rain markets.
Every series below is archived at full feed resolution — each contract file carries every trade print (price, size, side) and Level-2 order-book updates in one normalized, zstd-compressed schema. A series-day bundle holds all contracts of the series for one UTC day.
Most traded Temperature series (last 30 days)
Ranked by USD turnover from our own daily statistics — the series a market maker or bot builder should start with.
| # | Series | Venue | Trades (30d) | Turnover (30d) | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Where will it rain daily | Kalshi | 1,076,314 | $12.0M | 30 | Buy days |
| 2 | Hourly Directional Miami Temperature | Kalshi | 328,721 | $5.2M | 30 | Buy days |
| 3 | Highest temperature in Los Angeles | Kalshi | 520,565 | $3.5M | 30 | Buy days |
| 4 | Highest temperature in Miami | Kalshi | 226,456 | $1.5M | 30 | Buy days |
| 5 | Highest temperature in NYC | Kalshi | 239,137 | $1.3M | 30 | Buy days |
| 6 | Highest temperature in Chicago | Kalshi | 177,930 | $758.7K | 30 | Buy days |
| 7 | Daily High Temperature — Hong Kong | Polymarket | 60,295 | $757.9K | 30 | Buy days |
| 8 | Daily High Temperature — Shanghai | Polymarket | 62,213 | $527.4K | 30 | Buy days |
| 9 | Daily High Temperature — Paris | Polymarket | 72,793 | $524.5K | 30 | Buy days |
| 10 | Daily High Temperature — London | Polymarket | 68,237 | $524.3K | 30 | Buy days |
Trades and USD turnover summed over every contract of the series, from the recorded tick data; 30 days to 2026-10-13. Series without statistics in the window are omitted.
Temperature activity per venue
| Venue | Series | With stats | Trades (30d) | Turnover (30d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 50 | 43 | 4,145,343 | $31.0M |
| Polymarket | 104 | 102 | 2,314,002 | $16.2M |
| predict.fun | 13 | 13 | 1,517 | $17.2K |
30 days to 2026-10-13, from our own daily statistics per contract.
Temperature — development since capture
17,361,508 trades and $125.1M of USD turnover across 163 series since 2026-07-08; busiest single series-day 2026-09-21 with $783.8K, biggest contract KXHIGHLAX-26AUG27-T89 (2026-08-27, $596.9K).
| Month | Series active | Days | Trades | Turnover (USD) | Avg / day | Contracts traded | L2 updates | vs previous month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 (month to date) | 152 | 13 | 2,752,772 | $20.0M | $1.5M | 39,566 | 991.2M | — |
| Sep 2026 | 150 | 30 | 6,410,983 | $45.6M | $1.5M | 105,046 | 2.4B | +4.2 % |
| Aug 2026 | 150 | 31 | 5,931,516 | $43.8M | $1.4M | 84,894 | 2.2B | +178.0 % |
| Jul 2026 | 41 | 24 | 2,266,237 | $15.7M | $656.1K | — | — | — |
Temperature series — trades and USD turnover summed per calendar month (UTC) over every contract, from our own daily statistics of the recorded tick data. Days = captured UTC days; a partial month shows no month-over-month change. Contracts traded and L2 (order-book) updates exist for days captured with the extended statistics.
Temperature — how the contracts resolved, last 14 days
Of 1,798 resolved Temperature contracts over the 14 captured days to 2026-10-13, 56 % closed Yes and 44 % closed No by their last print — 181,290 trades and $2.5M of turnover, about 83 trades per contract.
| UTC day | Contracts | Closed Yes | Closed No | Yes share | Trades / contract | Turnover / contract | Turnover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | 183 | 85 | 69 | 55 % | 105 | $1.2K | $220.5K |
| 2026-10-12 | 166 | 76 | 56 | 58 % | 126 | $1.3K | $207.6K |
| 2026-10-11 | 143 | 65 | 51 | 56 % | 116 | $1.0K | $147.9K |
| 2026-10-10 | 125 | 52 | 47 | 53 % | 77 | $907.81 | $113.5K |
| 2026-10-09 | 134 | 60 | 52 | 54 % | 105 | $1.3K | $168.3K |
| 2026-10-08 | 141 | 65 | 53 | 55 % | 97 | $1.4K | $190.9K |
| 2026-10-07 | 173 | 85 | 59 | 59 % | 93 | $963.83 | $166.7K |
| 2026-10-06 | 168 | 83 | 58 | 59 % | 64 | $986.31 | $165.7K |
| 2026-10-05 | 144 | 67 | 49 | 58 % | 76 | $1.3K | $180.1K |
| 2026-10-04 | 126 | 50 | 42 | 54 % | 65 | $954.66 | $120.3K |
| 2026-10-03 | 145 | 68 | 48 | 59 % | 59 | $935.49 | $135.6K |
| 2026-10-02 | 168 | 72 | 72 | 50 % | 58 | $1.3K | $213.4K |
| 2026-10-01 | 186 | 82 | 74 | 53 % | 60 | $1.1K | $206.4K |
| 2026-09-30 | 194 | 88 | 70 | 56 % | 62 | $1.6K | $309.1K |
| Total | 2,196 | 998 | 800 | 56 % | 83 | $1.2K | $2.5M |
Outcome implied by each contract's last recorded print (≥ 0.97 = Yes, ≤ 0.03 = No; the rest still open at the last print) — venues publish the official results, we record the market. Every contract of the day is counted for this series; trades and USD turnover come from the tick archive.
Temperature — turnover by weekday
Mondays are the busiest day at about $1.8M of USD turnover, averaged over the captured days of the last 30.
| Weekday (UTC) | Avg turnover / day | USD | Avg trades | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | $1.8M | 231.5K | 5 | |
| Tuesday | $1.6M | 225.1K | 5 | |
| Wednesday | $1.7M | 219.9K | 4 | |
| Thursday | $1.5M | 203.9K | 4 | |
| Friday | $1.6M | 211.3K | 4 | |
| Saturday | $1.4M | 198.5K | 4 | |
| Sunday | $1.5M | 210.9K | 4 |
Temperature series — average USD turnover and trades per weekday over the captured days of the last 30, from our own daily statistics; weekdays without a captured day show —.
Rising Temperature series — 30 days vs the 30 before
| # | Series | Venue | Turnover (30d) | Prior 30d | Growth (avg / day) | Trades (30d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daily Low Temperature — Manila | Polymarket | $14.0K | $6.2K | +413.2 % | 621 |
| 2 | Hourly Directional Miami Temperature | Kalshi | $5.2M | $1.9M | +176.6 % | 328,721 |
| 3 | Daily High Temperature — Zhengzhou | Polymarket | $30.0K | $27.7K | +80.6 % | 4,050 |
| 4 | Atlanta Max Temperature | Kalshi | $492.4K | $272.8K | +80.5 % | 112,674 |
| 5 | Daily High Temperature — Manila | Polymarket | $283.7K | $181.4K | +56.4 % | 37,842 |
Growth of average USD turnover per captured day, the 30 days to 2026-10-13 against the 30 days before; series need ≥ 10 captured days in both windows and ≥ $10K of turnover in the current one. From our own daily statistics.
Temperature prediction markets — trades and turnover per day
Every captured UTC day of the last 30, summed over the 167 Temperature series — how much these markets trade day by day, from our own tick capture.
| UTC day | Series with stats | Contracts traded | Trades | Turnover | Buy share | L2 updates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | 150 | 3,187 | 227,329 | $1.6M | 53 % | 113.2M |
| 2026-10-12 | 150 | 3,156 | 247,396 | $2.0M | 49 % | 102.9M |
| 2026-10-11 | 150 | 2,953 | 226,525 | $1.6M | 52 % | 78.5M |
| 2026-10-10 | 150 | 3,143 | 191,144 | $1.4M | 57 % | 82.7M |
| 2026-10-09 | 150 | 3,085 | 203,052 | $1.5M | 57 % | 77.6M |
| 2026-10-08 | 137 | 3,187 | 189,245 | $1.3M | 59 % | 90.9M |
| 2026-10-07 | 137 | 2,993 | 203,472 | $1.5M | 56 % | 79.7M |
| 2026-10-06 | 137 | 3,119 | 206,952 | $1.4M | 54 % | 64.5M |
| 2026-10-05 | 137 | 2,927 | 215,083 | $1.6M | 50 % | 65.2M |
| 2026-10-04 | 137 | 2,940 | 205,278 | $1.4M | 55 % | 59.6M |
| 2026-10-03 | 137 | 2,914 | 208,311 | $1.3M | 57 % | 58.2M |
| 2026-10-02 | 137 | 2,952 | 229,271 | $1.8M | 56 % | 61.1M |
| 2026-10-01 | 139 | 3,010 | 199,714 | $1.8M | 50 % | 57.2M |
| 2026-09-30 | 139 | 2,977 | 227,732 | $2.0M | 51 % | 58.6M |
| 2026-09-29 | 141 | 2,959 | 228,949 | $1.6M | 54 % | 44.7M |
| 2026-09-28 | 141 | 3,087 | 215,868 | $1.7M | 56 % | 48.6M |
| 2026-09-27 | 141 | 2,920 | 188,480 | $1.3M | 53 % | 60.3M |
| 2026-09-26 | 141 | 3,036 | 192,931 | $1.3M | 55 % | 71.3M |
| 2026-09-25 | 142 | 3,173 | 226,517 | $1.6M | 55 % | 67.7M |
| 2026-09-24 | 145 | 3,066 | 232,943 | $1.5M | 56 % | 74.5M |
| 2026-09-23 | 145 | 3,151 | 238,430 | $1.7M | 53 % | 76.6M |
| 2026-09-22 | 145 | 3,144 | 234,667 | $1.8M | 53 % | 86.0M |
| 2026-09-21 | 145 | 3,359 | 257,793 | $2.1M | 51 % | 107.9M |
| 2026-09-20 | 145 | 3,082 | 223,487 | $1.6M | 59 % | 84.1M |
| 2026-09-19 | 145 | 3,078 | 201,753 | $1.4M | 57 % | 77.9M |
| 2026-09-18 | 145 | 3,124 | 186,191 | $1.4M | 54 % | 89.0M |
| 2026-09-17 | 145 | 3,083 | 193,772 | $1.4M | 56 % | 90.9M |
| 2026-09-16 | 145 | 3,279 | 209,877 | $1.5M | 52 % | 97.9M |
| 2026-09-15 | 145 | 3,180 | 227,529 | $1.7M | 44 % | 96.5M |
| 2026-09-14 | 145 | 3,275 | 221,171 | $1.5M | 51 % | 93.5M |
Per UTC day, summed over every Temperature series that has statistics for that day, from every trade print of every contract in our tick archive. Trades and USD turnover are exact; contracts traded, buy share and L2 (order-book) updates exist for days captured with the extended statistics — earlier days show —.
Most traded Temperature contracts on 2026-10-13
The single event contracts with the most USD turnover on the newest captured day — with open and close price and the outcome implied by the last print.
| Contract | Series | Venue | Open → Close | Implied outcome | Trades | Turnover | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXRAIN-26OCT12-LAX | Where will it rain daily | Kalshi | 0.990 → 0.990 | Yes | 178 | $85.5K | buy file → |
| KXHIGHNY-26OCT13-T71 | Highest temperature in NYC | Kalshi | 0.260 → 0.960 | open | 4,312 | $54.6K | buy file → |
| KXRAIN-26OCT13-MIN | Where will it rain daily | Kalshi | 0.090 → 0.990 | Yes | 3,831 | $49.3K | buy file → |
| KXRAIN-26OCT13-PHX | Where will it rain daily | Kalshi | 0.510 → 0.990 | Yes | 3,292 | $49.0K | buy file → |
| KXHIGHLAX-26OCT13-B72.5 | Highest temperature in Los Angeles | Kalshi | 0.460 → 0.990 | Yes | 3,891 | $36.0K | buy file → |
| KXRAIN-26OCT13-CHI | Where will it rain daily | Kalshi | 0.400 → 0.660 | open | 4,858 | $35.1K | buy file → |
| KXRAIN-26OCT13-DEN | Where will it rain daily | Kalshi | 0.200 → 0.750 | open | 4,519 | $27.1K | buy file → |
| KXRAIN-26OCT13-BOS | Where will it rain daily | Kalshi | 0.840 → 0.990 | Yes | 692 | $22.0K | buy file → |
| KXRAIN-26OCT13-HOU | Where will it rain daily | Kalshi | 0.590 → 0.030 | No | 4,580 | $20.9K | buy file → |
| KXRAIN-26OCT13-MKE | Where will it rain daily | Kalshi | 0.150 → 0.760 | open | 2,007 | $18.6K | buy file → |
Single contracts ranked by USD turnover on 2026-10-13 (UTC), from every trade print in our tick archive. Prices quote 0..1; the implied outcome reads the last print of the day (≥ 0.97 Yes/Up, ≤ 0.03 No/Down) — venues publish the official result. Each contract’s day file is sold individually, the whole series day as a bundle.
Biggest Temperature moves in the last 24 hours
From the live prediction-movers snapshot (contracts of this topic's series only, settled markets filtered). Intraday — not part of the archived dataset.
| Contract | Venue | Price 24h ago → now | Δ | 24h turnover |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXHIGHNY-26OCT14-T78 | Kalshi | 0.44 → 0.84 | +0.40 | $36.2K |
| KXRAIN-26OCT14-AUS | Kalshi | 0.45 → 0.59 | +0.14 | $18.6K |
| KXHIGHNY-26OCT14-B78.5 | Kalshi | 0.37 → 0.19 | -0.18 | $13.2K |
| KXRAIN-26OCT14-CLL | Kalshi | 0.41 → 0.32 | -0.09 | $40.6K |
Live contracts ranked by absolute 24-hour price change (contracts quote 0..1; settled or near-settled contracts excluded). Snapshot 2026-10-14 20:51 UTC. Full list in the prediction movers.
Polymarket Temperature series
Largest archive first. Each series page lists its exact coverage, day count and recent days; day bundles are bought in the shop calendar.
Kalshi Temperature series
Largest archive first. Each series page lists its exact coverage, day count and recent days; day bundles are bought in the shop calendar.
predict.fun Temperature series
Largest archive first. Each series page lists its exact coverage, day count and recent days; day bundles are bought in the shop calendar.
Why buy Temperature prediction-market data here
Four things every page on this site is built on — and the reason the numbers above exist at all.
We record everything
The complete public feed of each venue as it was published: every Level-2 snapshot and update at the venue's full book depth, every trade with its aggressor side, every quote, funding, mark-price and liquidation event — for every instrument the venue lists, every UTC day since we added the venue. Nothing sampled, no top-N cut, no on-demand capture.
Institutional grade
Captured co-located at the venue with the exchange timestamp and our receive timestamp in integer nanoseconds, an event-id chain that makes any gap visible, and one normalized schema across 35+ venues — the same capture our own high-frequency trading engine and enterprise feeds run on.
€1 per instrument-day
Any instrument-day is €1, series-day bundles start at €1 — no subscription, no minimum order, no tiers to unlock. Credit packs lower the effective price and never expire, and every venue has free full-day samples to test against first.
Self-service for everyone
Pick the days in the Data Shop, pay by card as a guest and download immediately — no sales call, no enterprise contract, no KYC. Coding agents buy the same files through the MCP server, and the free Agent Skill teaches them the format.
Agents: /llms.txt · MCP server /mcp · every page as markdown via Accept: text/markdown
Temperature prediction-market data — FAQ
Which cities have temperature markets?
Polymarket: London, NYC, Paris, Seoul, Chicago, Miami, Dallas, Atlanta, Seattle, Toronto, Hong Kong, Buenos Aires, São Paulo, Ankara and Wellington. Kalshi: NYC, LA, Chicago, Miami, Austin, Denver, Philadelphia, Boston, Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Seattle, San Francisco, Minneapolis, New Orleans, Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Washington DC — plus hourly directional series for NYC, DC, Chicago, Austin, LA, Boston and Miami, holiday max-temperature and rain markets.
How is weather prediction-market data sold?
One purchase covers every contract of the series for one UTC day — every trade print and the complete Level-2 book per contract, captured co-located with nanosecond timestamps — €1 per series-day, bought as a guest with instant download.
How far back does the Temperature data go?
Coverage runs December 2025 – present — 24,504 series-days across 167 series on Kalshi & Polymarket & predict.fun. Each series page lists its exact span.
Can I get Temperature prediction-market data as CSV or Parquet?
Yes — trades export as gzipped CSV or Parquet at no extra cost, with integer microsecond UTC timestamps that load straight into pandas, polars or DuckDB. Both venues record full order-book depth without a separate BBO stream, so book data ships in the native tick file — the free reader script converts it locally. See the formats overview.
How much does Temperature prediction-market data cost?
€1 per series-day bundle — every contract of the series for that UTC day — no subscription, no minimum order. Pick days in the shop calendar, pay as a guest, download immediately.
Do I need an account or a sales call?
No. Pick the Temperature series-days in the Data Shop, pay by card as a guest and download immediately — no subscription, no minimum order, no KYC, no enterprise contract, no sales call. Coding agents buy the same bundles through the MCP server.
How is the Temperature data captured?
Co-located at the venue, message by message: every Level-2 update and every trade print carries the exchange timestamp and our receive timestamp in integer nanoseconds, an event-id chain makes any gap visible, and one normalized schema across 35+ venues means a parser written for Binance reads these files unchanged. It is the same capture our own high-frequency trading engine runs on — nothing sampled, no top-N cut.
What was the busiest Temperature trading day?
2026-09-21 — $783.8K of USD turnover over 58,834 trades in a single series-day. Since our statistics began on 2026-07-08, 163 Temperature series recorded 17,361,508 trades and $125.1M in total; the biggest single contract was KXHIGHLAX-26AUG27-T89 on 2026-08-27 at $596.9K. Mondays are the busiest weekday at about $1.8M per day.
How often did Temperature contracts resolve Yes vs No recently?
56 % of 1,798 resolved contracts closed Yes and 44 % closed No by their last recorded print over the 14 captured days to 2026-10-13, about 83 trades per contract. Implied from the market (≥ 0.97 / ≤ 0.03), not the official settlement.