Climate Prediction Market Data
Tick-by-tick trades and L2 order-book depth for 192 climate series on Kalshi & Polymarket & predict.fun — daily high temperature in NYC, London, Paris, Seoul. 30,394 series-days covering December 2025 – present, every contract of every series captured co-located with nanosecond venue and receive timestamps — sold as day bundles, €1 per day, bought as a guest with instant download.
Browse climate data by topic
Each topic hub lists its series per venue with 30-day activity (to 2026-10-23), coverage and FAQ.
All climate series
Every live series in this topic, largest archive first. Each series page lists its exact coverage, day count and free samples; day bundles are bought in the shop calendar.
Climate activity per venue
| Venue | Series | With stats | Trades (30d) | Turnover (30d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 75 | 68 | 4,965,088 | $38.4M |
| Polymarket | 104 | 102 | 2,033,396 | $14.8M |
| predict.fun | 13 | 13 | 4,929 | $67.0K |
30 days to 2026-10-23, from our own daily statistics per contract.
Climate — development since capture
20,138,371 trades and $147.8M of USD turnover across 188 climate series since 2026-07-08; busiest single series-day 2026-10-14 with $935.2K, biggest contract KXHIGHLAX-26AUG27-T89 (2026-08-27, $596.9K).
| Month | Series active | Days | Trades | Turnover (USD) | Avg / day | Contracts traded | L2 updates | vs previous month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 (month to date) | 177 | 23 | 5,379,625 | $41.1M | $1.8M | 82,719 | 2.1B | — |
| Sep 2026 | 175 | 30 | 6,548,329 | $47.1M | $1.6M | 110,203 | 2.4B | +7.4 % |
| Aug 2026 | 157 | 31 | 5,939,370 | $43.8M | $1.4M | 85,696 | 2.2B | +177.6 % |
| Jul 2026 | 43 | 24 | 2,271,047 | $15.8M | $658.0K | — | — | — |
Climate series — trades and USD turnover summed per calendar month (UTC) over every contract, from our own daily statistics of the recorded tick data. Days = captured UTC days; a partial month shows no month-over-month change. Contracts traded and L2 (order-book) updates exist for days captured with the extended statistics.
Climate — how the interval contracts resolved, last 14 days
Of 6,402 resolved climate contracts over the 14 captured days to 2026-10-23, 54 % closed Yes and 46 % closed No by their last print — 496,303 trades and $5.3M of turnover, about 62 trades per contract.
| UTC day | Contracts | Closed Yes | Closed No | Yes share | Trades / contract | Turnover / contract | Turnover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | 619 | 272 | 234 | 54 % | 79 | $804.74 | $498.1K |
| 2026-10-22 | 582 | 260 | 210 | 55 % | 65 | $787.94 | $458.6K |
| 2026-10-21 | 569 | 240 | 221 | 52 % | 66 | $622.58 | $354.3K |
| 2026-10-20 | 580 | 251 | 210 | 54 % | 66 | $734.48 | $426.0K |
| 2026-10-19 | 578 | 257 | 206 | 56 % | 69 | $776.89 | $449.0K |
| 2026-10-18 | 621 | 291 | 215 | 58 % | 49 | $577.6 | $358.7K |
| 2026-10-17 | 613 | 250 | 229 | 52 % | 56 | $706.66 | $433.2K |
| 2026-10-16 | 601 | 252 | 238 | 51 % | 61 | $750.8 | $451.2K |
| 2026-10-15 | 505 | 206 | 201 | 51 % | 58 | $673.6 | $340.2K |
| 2026-10-14 | 581 | 292 | 192 | 60 % | 59 | $653.02 | $379.4K |
| 2026-10-13 | 579 | 243 | 223 | 52 % | 60 | $601.3 | $348.2K |
| 2026-10-12 | 545 | 232 | 197 | 54 % | 69 | $609.12 | $332.0K |
| 2026-10-11 | 539 | 215 | 214 | 50 % | 59 | $516.88 | $278.6K |
| 2026-10-10 | 448 | 174 | 177 | 50 % | 57 | $510.05 | $228.5K |
| Total | 7,960 | 3,435 | 2,967 | 54 % | 62 | $670.34 | $5.3M |
Outcome implied by each contract's last recorded print (≥ 0.97 = Yes, ≤ 0.03 = No; the rest still open at the last print) — venues publish the official results, we record the market. Every contract of the day is counted for this series; trades and USD turnover come from the tick archive.
Climate — turnover by weekday
Fridays are the busiest day at about $2.0M of USD turnover, averaged over the captured days of the last 30.
| Weekday (UTC) | Avg turnover / day | USD | Avg trades | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | $1.8M | 240.2K | 4 | |
| Tuesday | $1.7M | 233.6K | 4 | |
| Wednesday | $1.9M | 239.1K | 4 | |
| Thursday | $1.8M | 230.6K | 5 | |
| Friday | $2.0M | 247.6K | 5 | |
| Saturday | $1.6M | 221.7K | 4 | |
| Sunday | $1.6M | 218.6K | 4 |
Climate series — average USD turnover and trades per weekday over the captured days of the last 30, from our own daily statistics; weekdays without a captured day show —.
Rising climate series — 30 days vs the 30 before
| # | Series | Venue | Turnover (30d) | Prior 30d | Growth (avg / day) | Trades (30d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricane category | Kalshi | $244.0K | $42.6K | +472.6 % | 10,116 |
| 2 | Hurricanes | Kalshi | $16.4K | $4.7K | +251.1 % | 858 |
| 3 | Daily Low Temperature — Istanbul | Polymarket | $24.5K | $7.5K | +226.7 % | 1,370 |
| 4 | Number of major hurricanes | Kalshi | $27.4K | $9.2K | +197.7 % | 3,414 |
| 5 | Number of Tornadoes | Kalshi | $16.4K | $5.9K | +175.2 % | 1,679 |
| 6 | Hourly Directional Miami Temperature | Kalshi | $6.5M | $2.4M | +163.7 % | 419,413 |
| 7 | Hurricane Names | Kalshi | $22.5K | $9.5K | +137.1 % | 1,048 |
| 8 | First Hurricane | Kalshi | $33.6K | $34.8K | +93.1 % | 2,238 |
| 9 | Daily High Temperature — Istanbul | Polymarket | $334.6K | $196.1K | +70.6 % | 29,894 |
| 10 | Boston Maximum Daily Temperature | Kalshi | $342.7K | $215.8K | +58.8 % | 79,559 |
Growth of average USD turnover per captured day, the 30 days to 2026-10-23 against the 30 days before; series need ≥ 10 captured days in both windows and ≥ $10K of turnover in the current one. From our own daily statistics.
Climate prediction markets — trades and turnover per day
Every captured UTC day of the last 30, summed over the 192 climate series, from our own tick capture.
| UTC day | Series with stats | Contracts traded | Trades | Turnover | Buy share | L2 updates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | 174 | 4,159 | 239,723 | $2.1M | 52 % | 83.8M |
| 2026-10-22 | 174 | 4,232 | 227,635 | $1.9M | 58 % | 101.0M |
| 2026-10-21 | 174 | 3,692 | 215,560 | $1.5M | 56 % | 113.7M |
| 2026-10-20 | 174 | 3,697 | 221,233 | $1.6M | 56 % | 102.9M |
| 2026-10-19 | 174 | 3,559 | 229,733 | $1.7M | 57 % | 97.6M |
| 2026-10-18 | 174 | 3,479 | 196,678 | $1.6M | 53 % | 79.5M |
| 2026-10-17 | 174 | 3,206 | 236,216 | $1.8M | 53 % | 73.7M |
| 2026-10-16 | 174 | 3,458 | 287,257 | $2.4M | 53 % | 110.7M |
| 2026-10-15 | 174 | 3,383 | 255,821 | $1.9M | 53 % | 107.9M |
| 2026-10-14 | 174 | 3,681 | 274,092 | $2.3M | 55 % | 124.6M |
| 2026-10-13 | 174 | 3,694 | 244,112 | $1.7M | 54 % | 123.2M |
| 2026-10-12 | 174 | 3,644 | 265,998 | $2.1M | 49 % | 111.5M |
| 2026-10-11 | 174 | 3,481 | 245,582 | $1.8M | 52 % | 83.2M |
| 2026-10-10 | 174 | 3,586 | 211,334 | $1.5M | 57 % | 88.3M |
| 2026-10-09 | 174 | 3,575 | 224,078 | $1.7M | 56 % | 83.3M |
| 2026-10-08 | 162 | 3,727 | 211,351 | $1.5M | 59 % | 99.5M |
| 2026-10-07 | 162 | 3,524 | 222,122 | $1.7M | 56 % | 88.1M |
| 2026-10-06 | 162 | 3,634 | 224,588 | $1.6M | 55 % | 72.6M |
| 2026-10-05 | 162 | 3,434 | 233,899 | $1.8M | 51 % | 72.2M |
| 2026-10-04 | 162 | 3,466 | 225,759 | $1.6M | 56 % | 65.2M |
| 2026-10-03 | 162 | 3,412 | 227,991 | $1.5M | 58 % | 63.9M |
| 2026-10-02 | 162 | 3,474 | 246,086 | $1.9M | 56 % | 68.2M |
| 2026-10-01 | 164 | 3,522 | 212,777 | $1.9M | 51 % | 62.6M |
| 2026-09-30 | 164 | 3,497 | 244,565 | $2.2M | 52 % | 66.6M |
| 2026-09-29 | 166 | 3,466 | 244,637 | $1.8M | 54 % | 49.5M |
| 2026-09-28 | 166 | 3,618 | 231,258 | $1.8M | 55 % | 53.0M |
| 2026-09-27 | 166 | 3,434 | 206,223 | $1.5M | 53 % | 64.0M |
| 2026-09-26 | 166 | 3,567 | 211,181 | $1.5M | 55 % | 75.8M |
| 2026-09-25 | 167 | 3,644 | 240,649 | $1.8M | 55 % | 72.8M |
| 2026-09-24 | 170 | 3,490 | 245,275 | $1.6M | 56 % | 79.7M |
Per UTC day, summed over every climate series that has statistics for that day, from every trade print of every contract in our tick archive. Trades and USD turnover are exact; contracts traded, buy share and L2 (order-book) updates exist for days captured with the extended statistics — earlier days show —.
Most traded climate contracts on 2026-10-23
The single event contracts with the most USD turnover on the newest captured day — open and close price and the outcome implied by the last print.
| Contract | Series | Venue | Open → Close | Implied outcome | Trades | Turnover | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXRAIN-26OCT23-ABQ | Where will it rain daily | Kalshi | 0.980 → 0.990 | Yes | 525 | $252.0K | buy file → |
| KXRAIN-26OCT23-WPB | Where will it rain daily | Kalshi | 0.560 → 0.990 | Yes | 5,850 | $89.7K | buy file → |
| KXRAIN-26OCT22-LAX | Where will it rain daily | Kalshi | 0.570 → 0.030 | No | 11,554 | $72.5K | buy file → |
| KXRAIN-26OCT23-MIA | Where will it rain daily | Kalshi | 0.690 → 0.990 | Yes | 3,941 | $71.3K | buy file → |
| KXRAIN-26OCT23-MIN | Where will it rain daily | Kalshi | 0.280 → 0.230 | open | 9,123 | $56.1K | buy file → |
| KXRAIN-26OCT22-ABQ | Where will it rain daily | Kalshi | 0.700 → 0.990 | Yes | 2,346 | $46.9K | buy file → |
| KXHIGHMIA-26OCT23-B81.5 | Highest temperature in Miami | Kalshi | 0.310 → 0.990 | Yes | 3,376 | $26.4K | buy file → |
| KXHIGHNY-26OCT23-B59.5 | Highest temperature in NYC | Kalshi | 0.450 → 0.990 | Yes | 2,572 | $25.5K | buy file → |
| KXHIGHLAX-26OCT23-B71.5 | Highest temperature in Los Angeles | Kalshi | 0.550 → 0.990 | Yes | 1,799 | $19.4K | buy file → |
| KXHIGHLAX-26OCT22-B70.5 | Highest temperature in Los Angeles | Kalshi | 0.820 → 0.960 | open | 763 | $17.1K | buy file → |
Single contracts ranked by USD turnover on 2026-10-23 (UTC), from every trade print in our tick archive. Prices quote 0..1; the implied outcome reads the last print of the day (≥ 0.97 Yes/Up, ≤ 0.03 No/Down) — venues publish the official result. Each contract’s day file is sold individually, the whole series day as a bundle.
Why buy climate prediction-market data here
Four things every page on this site is built on — and the reason the numbers above exist at all.
We record everything
The complete public feed of each venue as it was published: every Level-2 snapshot and update at the venue's full book depth, every trade with its aggressor side, every quote, funding, mark-price and liquidation event — for every instrument the venue lists, every UTC day since we added the venue. Nothing sampled, no top-N cut, no on-demand capture.
Institutional grade
Captured co-located at the venue with the exchange timestamp and our receive timestamp in integer nanoseconds, an event-id chain that makes any gap visible, and one normalized schema across 35+ venues — the same capture our own high-frequency trading engine and enterprise feeds run on.
€1 per instrument-day
Any instrument-day is €1, series-day bundles start at €1 — no subscription, no minimum order, no tiers to unlock. Credit packs lower the effective price and never expire, and every venue has free full-day samples to test against first.
Self-service for everyone
Pick the days in the Data Shop, pay by card as a guest and download immediately — no sales call, no enterprise contract, no KYC. Coding agents buy the same files through the MCP server, and the free Agent Skill teaches them the format.
Agents: /llms.txt · MCP server /mcp · every page as markdown via Accept: text/markdown
Climate prediction-market data — FAQ
What climate prediction-market data can I download?
Tick-by-tick trades and Level-2 order-book depth for every contract of 192 climate series on Kalshi & Polymarket & predict.fun — daily high temperature in NYC, London, Paris, Seoul. Each series page lists its exact coverage and day count.
How far back does the climate data go?
Coverage runs December 2025 – present — 30,394 series-days in total across the category.
Is every climate contract included?
Yes — every contract of every listed series, every UTC day since we added the venue, at full order-book depth; nothing is sampled or cut to a top-N. The tables on this page show the largest series, the archive holds all of them.
How is the climate data sold?
As series-day bundles: one purchase covers every contract of a series for one UTC day, €1 — no subscription, no minimum. Pick days in the shop calendar; delivery is per file, one ZIP per day, or a resumable multi-day archive.
How are temperature markets structured?
As one ladder per city per day — a contract per temperature range, settled against the station reading the venue names; the ladder's prices read as an implied distribution of the day's high or low. Each city is its own series, so a day bundle holds every range of that city for that day.
Which cities are covered?
The temperature hub lists every city family the venues have listed, with its coverage and day count.
Do I need an account or a sales call?
No. Pick the climate series-days in the Data Shop, pay by card as a guest and download immediately — no subscription, no minimum order, no KYC, no enterprise contract, no sales call. Coding agents buy the same bundles through the MCP server.
How is the climate data captured?
Co-located at the venue, message by message: every Level-2 update and every trade print carries the exchange timestamp and our receive timestamp in integer nanoseconds, an event-id chain makes any gap visible, and one normalized schema across 35+ venues means a parser written for Binance reads these files unchanged. It is the same capture our own high-frequency trading engine runs on — nothing sampled, no top-N cut.
What format do the files ship in?
One zstd-compressed text file per contract per UTC day, in the same documented schema as every crypto venue; trades also export as gzipped CSV or Parquet at no extra cost. Free samples are on the downloads page, the schema in the market-data specification.
How is climate turnover split between venues?
Over the 30 days to 2026-10-23: Kalshi $38.4M (72 %, 4,965,088 trades) · Polymarket $14.8M (28 %, 2,033,396 trades) · predict.fun $67.0K (0 %, 4,929 trades) — summed from every trade print of every climate series with statistics on each venue.
What was the busiest climate trading day?
2026-10-14 — $935.2K of USD turnover over 68,509 trades in a single series-day. Since our statistics began on 2026-07-08, 188 climate series recorded 20,138,371 trades and $147.8M in total; the biggest single contract was KXHIGHLAX-26AUG27-T89 on 2026-08-27 at $596.9K. Fridays are the busiest weekday at about $2.0M per day.
How often did climate contracts resolve Yes vs No recently?
54 % of 6,402 resolved contracts closed Yes and 46 % closed No by their last recorded print over the 14 captured days to 2026-10-23, about 62 trades per contract. Implied from the market (≥ 0.97 / ≤ 0.03), not the official settlement.