Bitcoin Up or Down Prediction Market Data
Tick-by-tick trades and L2 order-book depth for 13 Bitcoin Up or Down series on Kalshi & Polymarket & predict.fun — Kalshi KXBTC15M (BTC Up/Down 15m), Polymarket BTC Up/Down 5m/15m/4h, Bitcoin Up or Down 1h, KXBTCD above/below, Bitcoin range. 2,965 series-days covering May 2025 – present; 129.9M trades · $4.5B turnover over the last 30 captured days. Every contract captured co-located with nanosecond venue and receive timestamps — sold as day bundles, €1 per day, bought as a guest with instant download.
Bitcoin Up or Down on Kalshi & Polymarket & predict.fun
BTC Up/Down 5m, 15m, 1h and 4h interval contracts plus Bitcoin price-level (above/below, range, multistrike) markets on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Every series below is archived at full feed resolution — each contract file carries every trade print (price, size, side) and Level-2 order-book updates in one normalized, zstd-compressed schema. A series-day bundle holds all contracts of the series for one UTC day.
Most traded Bitcoin Up or Down series (last 30 days)
Ranked by USD turnover from our own daily statistics — the series a market maker or bot builder should start with.
| # | Series | Venue | Trades (30d) | Turnover (30d) | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BTC Up/Down 15m | Kalshi | 97,647,314 | $3.7B | 30 | Buy days |
| 2 | Bitcoin price Above/below | Kalshi | 13,865,495 | $522.9M | 30 | Buy days |
| 3 | BTC Up/Down 5m | Polymarket | 12,373,282 | $186.0M | 30 | Buy days |
| 4 | BTC Up/Down 15m | Polymarket | 2,712,245 | $48.4M | 30 | Buy days |
| 5 | BTC Above (price strikes) | Polymarket | 175,992 | $26.2M | 30 | Buy days |
| 6 | BTC Up or Down 1h | Polymarket | 569,432 | $13.8M | 30 | Buy days |
| 7 | BTC Up/Down 5m | predict.fun | 1,123,811 | $12.6M | 4 | Buy days |
| 8 | Bitcoin range | Kalshi | 944,509 | $8.7M | 30 | Buy days |
| 9 | BTC Up/Down 4h | Polymarket | 79,319 | $1.6M | 30 | Buy days |
| 10 | BTC Up/Down 15m | predict.fun | 132,506 | $1.2M | 4 | Buy days |
Trades and USD turnover summed over every contract of the series, from the recorded tick data; 30 days to 2026-10-12. Series without statistics in the window are omitted.
Bitcoin Up or Down activity per venue
| Venue | Series | With stats | Trades (30d) | Turnover (30d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 4 | 4 | 112,653,515 | $4.2B |
| Polymarket | 6 | 5 | 15,910,270 | $276.0M |
| predict.fun | 3 | 3 | 1,288,850 | $14.2M |
30 days to 2026-10-12, from our own daily statistics per contract.
Bitcoin Up or Down — development since capture
285,114,578 trades and $9.6B of USD turnover across 12 series since 2026-07-08; busiest single series-day 2026-09-21 with $153.2M, biggest contract KXBTC15M-26SEP161415-15 (2026-09-16, $3.7M).
| Month | Series active | Days | Trades | Turnover (USD) | Avg / day | Contracts traded | L2 updates | vs previous month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 (month to date) | 12 | 12 | 56,163,044 | $1.9B | $154.5M | 23,619 | 2.1B | — |
| Sep 2026 | 9 | 30 | 115,266,912 | $4.1B | $135.7M | 59,410 | 5.0B | +60.8 % |
| Aug 2026 | 9 | 31 | 75,252,900 | $2.5B | $81.6M | 44,211 | 3.1B | +121.0 % |
| Jul 2026 | 8 | 24 | 38,431,722 | $1.1B | $47.7M | — | — | — |
Bitcoin Up or Down series — trades and USD turnover summed per calendar month (UTC) over every contract, from our own daily statistics of the recorded tick data. Days = captured UTC days; a partial month shows no month-over-month change. Contracts traded and L2 (order-book) updates exist for days captured with the extended statistics.
Bitcoin Up or Down — how the contracts resolved, last 14 days
Of 10,929 resolved Bitcoin Up or Down contracts over the 14 captured days to 2026-10-12, 40 % closed Yes and 60 % closed No by their last print — 59,424,742 trades and $2.0B of turnover, about 4,522 trades per contract.
| UTC day | Contracts | Closed Yes | Closed No | Yes share | Trades / contract | Turnover / contract | Turnover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 1,318 | 430 | 701 | 38 % | 3,578 | $103.0K | $135.8M |
| 2026-10-11 | 807 | 293 | 396 | 43 % | 5,216 | $163.5K | $131.9M |
| 2026-10-10 | 1,305 | 526 | 647 | 45 % | 3,566 | $105.7K | $138.0M |
| 2026-10-09 | 1,160 | 419 | 561 | 43 % | 4,116 | $145.3K | $168.6M |
| 2026-10-08 | 868 | 259 | 464 | 36 % | 4,824 | $155.0K | $134.5M |
| 2026-10-07 | 923 | 274 | 482 | 36 % | 4,612 | $144.5K | $133.4M |
| 2026-10-06 | 836 | 271 | 405 | 40 % | 4,993 | $168.4K | $140.8M |
| 2026-10-05 | 888 | 276 | 431 | 39 % | 4,934 | $155.9K | $138.4M |
| 2026-10-04 | 788 | 319 | 338 | 49 % | 4,950 | $175.8K | $138.5M |
| 2026-10-03 | 758 | 308 | 335 | 48 % | 5,260 | $178.6K | $135.4M |
| 2026-10-02 | 908 | 266 | 495 | 35 % | 4,955 | $174.8K | $158.7M |
| 2026-10-01 | 811 | 286 | 393 | 42 % | 4,712 | $176.5K | $143.2M |
| 2026-09-30 | 903 | 252 | 478 | 35 % | 4,355 | $155.7K | $140.6M |
| 2026-09-29 | 868 | 226 | 398 | 36 % | 4,529 | $170.2K | $147.7M |
| Total | 13,141 | 4,405 | 6,524 | 40 % | 4,522 | $151.1K | $2.0B |
Outcome implied by each contract's last recorded print (≥ 0.97 = Yes, ≤ 0.03 = No; the rest still open at the last print) — venues publish the official results, we record the market. Every contract of the day is counted for this series; trades and USD turnover come from the tick archive.
Bitcoin Up or Down — turnover by weekday
Fridays are the busiest day at about $168.1M of USD turnover, averaged over the captured days of the last 30.
| Weekday (UTC) | Avg turnover / day | USD | Avg trades | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | $162.5M | 4.7M | 5 | |
| Tuesday | $157.1M | 4.5M | 4 | |
| Wednesday | $148.5M | 4.3M | 4 | |
| Thursday | $138.4M | 4.0M | 4 | |
| Friday | $168.1M | 4.5M | 4 | |
| Saturday | $139.7M | 4.2M | 4 | |
| Sunday | $134.0M | 4.1M | 5 |
Bitcoin Up or Down series — average USD turnover and trades per weekday over the captured days of the last 30, from our own daily statistics; weekdays without a captured day show —.
Rising Bitcoin Up or Down series — 30 days vs the 30 before
| # | Series | Venue | Turnover (30d) | Prior 30d | Growth (avg / day) | Trades (30d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BTC Up/Down 15m | Kalshi | $3.7B | $2.7B | +35.4 % | 97,647,314 |
| 2 | BTC price range EOY | Kalshi | $270.7K | $217.6K | +24.4 % | 196,197 |
| 3 | BTC Up/Down 15m | Polymarket | $48.4M | $40.8M | +18.6 % | 2,712,245 |
| 4 | Bitcoin range | Kalshi | $8.7M | $7.6M | +14.7 % | 944,509 |
| 5 | BTC Up or Down 1h | Polymarket | $13.8M | $13.8M | +0.3 % | 569,432 |
Growth of average USD turnover per captured day, the 30 days to 2026-10-12 against the 30 days before; series need ≥ 10 captured days in both windows and ≥ $10K of turnover in the current one. From our own daily statistics.
Bitcoin Up or Down prediction markets — trades and turnover per day
Every captured UTC day of the last 30, summed over the 13 Bitcoin Up or Down series — how much these markets trade day by day, from our own tick capture.
| UTC day | Series with stats | Contracts traded | Trades | Turnover | Buy share | L2 updates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 12 | 2,467 | 5,221,605 | $151.6M | 49 % | 202.3M |
| 2026-10-11 | 12 | 1,720 | 4,547,121 | $141.5M | 48 % | 126.6M |
| 2026-10-10 | 12 | 1,782 | 4,667,379 | $138.4M | 48 % | 117.8M |
| 2026-10-09 | 12 | 2,274 | 5,194,659 | $181.8M | 49 % | 189.4M |
| 2026-10-08 | 9 | 1,962 | 4,642,927 | $149.3M | 48 % | 217.1M |
| 2026-10-07 | 9 | 2,072 | 4,688,569 | $148.0M | 48 % | 193.3M |
| 2026-10-06 | 9 | 1,887 | 4,613,612 | $155.0M | 48 % | 182.3M |
| 2026-10-05 | 9 | 2,043 | 4,865,649 | $154.4M | 49 % | 206.8M |
| 2026-10-04 | 9 | 1,760 | 4,199,635 | $148.6M | 48 % | 122.6M |
| 2026-10-03 | 9 | 1,654 | 4,220,953 | $144.0M | 49 % | 108.3M |
| 2026-10-02 | 9 | 2,176 | 5,053,025 | $182.2M | 48 % | 237.5M |
| 2026-10-01 | 9 | 1,822 | 4,247,910 | $159.6M | 48 % | 194.8M |
| 2026-09-30 | 9 | 2,136 | 4,405,840 | $157.0M | 49 % | 198.7M |
| 2026-09-29 | 9 | 1,914 | 4,393,049 | $163.9M | 49 % | 182.3M |
| 2026-09-28 | 9 | 2,185 | 4,792,989 | $165.5M | 49 % | 214.9M |
| 2026-09-27 | 9 | 1,750 | 3,984,420 | $139.2M | 49 % | 131.4M |
| 2026-09-26 | 9 | 1,626 | 4,139,298 | $137.2M | 49 % | 118.6M |
| 2026-09-25 | 9 | 1,953 | 4,018,752 | $157.0M | 49 % | 194.7M |
| 2026-09-24 | 9 | 1,931 | 4,084,656 | $141.4M | 49 % | 215.8M |
| 2026-09-23 | 9 | 2,119 | 4,150,713 | $148.0M | 48 % | 209.3M |
| 2026-09-22 | 9 | 2,169 | 4,628,183 | $159.8M | 49 % | 241.8M |
| 2026-09-21 | 9 | 2,399 | 4,492,851 | $192.3M | 49 % | 245.4M |
| 2026-09-20 | 9 | 1,923 | 4,031,935 | $139.3M | 49 % | 158.8M |
| 2026-09-19 | 9 | 1,841 | 3,822,986 | $139.1M | 49 % | 135.9M |
| 2026-09-18 | 9 | 2,021 | 3,609,944 | $151.3M | 47 % | 174.6M |
| 2026-09-17 | 9 | 1,833 | 3,065,182 | $103.4M | 49 % | 157.4M |
| 2026-09-16 | 9 | 2,141 | 3,876,711 | $140.9M | 50 % | 193.1M |
| 2026-09-15 | 9 | 2,202 | 4,431,111 | $149.6M | 49 % | 202.8M |
| 2026-09-14 | 9 | 2,098 | 4,244,710 | $148.9M | 49 % | 180.4M |
| 2026-09-13 | 9 | 1,585 | 3,516,261 | $101.4M | 49 % | 107.3M |
Per UTC day, summed over every Bitcoin Up or Down series that has statistics for that day, from every trade print of every contract in our tick archive. Trades and USD turnover are exact; contracts traded, buy share and L2 (order-book) updates exist for days captured with the extended statistics — earlier days show —.
Most traded Bitcoin Up or Down contracts on 2026-10-12
The single event contracts with the most USD turnover on the newest captured day — with open and close price and the outcome implied by the last print.
| Contract | Series | Venue | Open → Close | Implied outcome | Trades | Turnover | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXBTC15M-26OCT112100-00 | BTC Up/Down 15m | Kalshi | 0.530 → 0.999 | Up | 47,010 | $3.1M | buy file → |
| KXBTC15M-26OCT121815-15 | BTC Up/Down 15m | Kalshi | 0.530 → 0.999 | Up | 36,925 | $3.0M | buy file → |
| KXBTC15M-26OCT121530-30 | BTC Up/Down 15m | Kalshi | 0.520 → 0.999 | Up | 30,406 | $2.8M | buy file → |
| KXBTC15M-26OCT121215-15 | BTC Up/Down 15m | Kalshi | 0.450 → 0.999 | Up | 29,173 | $2.7M | buy file → |
| KXBTC15M-26OCT112030-30 | BTC Up/Down 15m | Kalshi | 0.460 → 0.999 | Up | 51,300 | $2.7M | buy file → |
| KXBTC15M-26OCT121615-15 | BTC Up/Down 15m | Kalshi | 0.540 → 0.999 | Up | 35,345 | $2.7M | buy file → |
| KXBTC15M-26OCT120000-00 | BTC Up/Down 15m | Kalshi | 0.610 → 0.999 | Up | 43,722 | $2.5M | buy file → |
| KXBTC15M-26OCT112230-30 | BTC Up/Down 15m | Kalshi | 0.540 → 0.999 | Up | 44,987 | $2.5M | buy file → |
| KXBTC15M-26OCT112045-45 | BTC Up/Down 15m | Kalshi | 0.440 → 0.001 | Down | 66,131 | $2.5M | buy file → |
| KXBTC15M-26OCT112115-15 | BTC Up/Down 15m | Kalshi | 0.560 → 0.999 | Up | 65,356 | $2.5M | buy file → |
Single contracts ranked by USD turnover on 2026-10-12 (UTC), from every trade print in our tick archive. Prices quote 0..1; the implied outcome reads the last print of the day (≥ 0.97 Yes/Up, ≤ 0.03 No/Down) — venues publish the official result. Each contract’s day file is sold individually, the whole series day as a bundle.
Biggest Bitcoin Up or Down moves in the last 24 hours
From the live prediction-movers snapshot (contracts of this topic's series only, settled markets filtered). Intraday — not part of the archived dataset.
| Contract | Venue | Price 24h ago → now | Δ | 24h turnover |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXBTCD-26OCT1617-T82499.99 | Kalshi | 0.51 → 0.62 | +0.11 | $12.3K |
| KXBTCD-26OCT1617-T81999.99 | Kalshi | 0.59 → 0.69 | +0.10 | $18.2K |
| KXBTCD-26OCT1617-T81499.99 | Kalshi | 0.66 → 0.76 | +0.10 | $18.4K |
| KXBTCD-26OCT1617-T80999.99 | Kalshi | 0.73 → 0.83 | +0.10 | $16.1K |
| KXBTCD-26OCT1617-T79499.99 | Kalshi | 0.87 → 0.92 | +0.05 | $11.9K |
Live contracts ranked by absolute 24-hour price change (contracts quote 0..1; settled or near-settled contracts excluded). Snapshot 2026-10-13 17:32 UTC. Full list in the prediction movers.
Polymarket Bitcoin Up or Down series
Largest archive first. Each series page lists its exact coverage, day count and recent days; day bundles are bought in the shop calendar.
| Series | Venue | Interval | Days | Coverage | Size | Price/day | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC Up/Down 5m | Polymarket | 5m | 243 | February 2026 – present | 254 GB | €1 | Buy days |
| BTC Up/Down 15m | Polymarket | 15m | 369 | October 2025 – present | 124 GB | €1 | Buy days |
| BTC Above (price strikes) | Polymarket | daily | 515 | May 2025 – present | 64.3 GB | €1 | Buy days |
| BTC Up or Down 1h | Polymarket | 1h | 516 | May 2025 – present | 42.7 GB | €1 | Buy days |
| BTC Up/Down 4h | Polymarket | 4h | 364 | October 2025 – present | 4.58 GB | €1 | Buy days |
| BTC Multistrike | Polymarket | event | 30 | August 2025 – September 2025 | 60.9 MB | €1 | Buy days |
Kalshi Bitcoin Up or Down series
Largest archive first. Each series page lists its exact coverage, day count and recent days; day bundles are bought in the shop calendar.
| Series | Venue | Interval | Days | Coverage | Size | Price/day | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin price Above/below | Kalshi | 1h | 229 | February 2026 – present | 185 GB | €1 | Buy days |
| BTC Up/Down 15m | Kalshi | 15m | 229 | February 2026 – present | 101 GB | €1 | Buy days |
| Bitcoin range | Kalshi | 1h | 229 | February 2026 – present | 44.2 GB | €1 | Buy days |
| BTC price range EOY | Kalshi | annual | 229 | February 2026 – present | 2.36 GB | €1 | Buy days |
predict.fun Bitcoin Up or Down series
Largest archive first. Each series page lists its exact coverage, day count and recent days; day bundles are bought in the shop calendar.
| Series | Venue | Interval | Days | Coverage | Size | Price/day | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC Up/Down 5m | predict.fun | 5m | 4 | October 2026 – present | 229 MB | €1 | Buy days |
| BTC Up/Down 15m | predict.fun | 15m | 4 | October 2026 – present | 64.3 MB | €1 | Buy days |
| BTC Up or Down 1h | predict.fun | 1h | 4 | October 2026 – present | 52.3 MB | €1 | Buy days |
Why buy Bitcoin Up or Down prediction-market data here
Four things every page on this site is built on — and the reason the numbers above exist at all.
We record everything
The complete public feed of each venue as it was published: every Level-2 snapshot and update at the venue's full book depth, every trade with its aggressor side, every quote, funding, mark-price and liquidation event — for every instrument the venue lists, every UTC day since we added the venue. Nothing sampled, no top-N cut, no on-demand capture.
Institutional grade
Captured co-located at the venue with the exchange timestamp and our receive timestamp in integer nanoseconds, an event-id chain that makes any gap visible, and one normalized schema across 35+ venues — the same capture our own high-frequency trading engine and enterprise feeds run on.
€1 per instrument-day
Any instrument-day is €1, series-day bundles start at €1 — no subscription, no minimum order, no tiers to unlock. Credit packs lower the effective price and never expire, and every venue has free full-day samples to test against first.
Self-service for everyone
Pick the days in the Data Shop, pay by card as a guest and download immediately — no sales call, no enterprise contract, no KYC. Coding agents buy the same files through the MCP server, and the free Agent Skill teaches them the format.
Agents: /llms.txt · MCP server /mcp · every page as markdown via Accept: text/markdown
Bitcoin Up or Down prediction-market data — FAQ
What is the Kalshi BTC 15m market?
KXBTC15M is Kalshi’s "Bitcoin Up or Down" series: every 15 minutes a new contract settles on whether BTC closes above its opening reference price. It is the most-traded series on Kalshi by a wide margin. Our archive holds every 15-minute contract of every day as one bundle, with tick-level trades and order books.
Does Polymarket have BTC up or down 5m markets?
Yes — Polymarket runs BTC Up/Down at 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour and 4-hour intervals; each interval is its own family here (btc-updown-5m-, btc-updown-15m-, bitcoin-up-or-down-, btc-updown-4h-).
Can I build an up-or-down trading bot from this data?
That is what it is bought for — see the guides on training data for up/down bots and on Kalshi vs Polymarket order books linked below. Pair it with our Binance tick data for the underlying spot price.
How far back does the Bitcoin Up or Down data go?
Coverage runs May 2025 – present — 2,965 series-days across 13 series on Kalshi & Polymarket & predict.fun. Each series page lists its exact span.
Can I get Bitcoin Up or Down prediction-market data as CSV or Parquet?
Yes — trades export as gzipped CSV or Parquet at no extra cost, with integer microsecond UTC timestamps that load straight into pandas, polars or DuckDB. Both venues record full order-book depth without a separate BBO stream, so book data ships in the native tick file — the free reader script converts it locally. See the formats overview.
How much does Bitcoin Up or Down prediction-market data cost?
€1 per series-day bundle — every contract of the series for that UTC day — no subscription, no minimum order. Pick days in the shop calendar, pay as a guest, download immediately.
Do I need an account or a sales call?
No. Pick the Bitcoin Up or Down series-days in the Data Shop, pay by card as a guest and download immediately — no subscription, no minimum order, no KYC, no enterprise contract, no sales call. Coding agents buy the same bundles through the MCP server.
How is the Bitcoin Up or Down data captured?
Co-located at the venue, message by message: every Level-2 update and every trade print carries the exchange timestamp and our receive timestamp in integer nanoseconds, an event-id chain makes any gap visible, and one normalized schema across 35+ venues means a parser written for Binance reads these files unchanged. It is the same capture our own high-frequency trading engine runs on — nothing sampled, no top-N cut.
What was the busiest Bitcoin Up or Down trading day?
2026-09-21 — $153.2M of USD turnover over 3,218,872 trades in a single series-day. Since our statistics began on 2026-07-08, 12 Bitcoin Up or Down series recorded 285,114,578 trades and $9.6B in total; the biggest single contract was KXBTC15M-26SEP161415-15 on 2026-09-16 at $3.7M. Fridays are the busiest weekday at about $168.1M per day.
How often did Bitcoin Up or Down contracts resolve Yes vs No recently?
40 % of 10,929 resolved contracts closed Yes and 60 % closed No by their last recorded print over the 14 captured days to 2026-10-12, about 4,522 trades per contract. Implied from the market (≥ 0.97 / ≤ 0.03), not the official settlement.