Tick-by-tick trades and L2 order-book depth for 10 AI Models series on Kalshi — Year-end top LLM (KXLLM1), top-ranked AI, best coding model, Humanity’s Last Exam, AGI before date, Claude model release, capability spikes, OpenAI/Jony Ive hardware. 1,752 series-days covering March 2026 – September 2026; 24.2K trades · $516.5K turnover in the 30 days to 2026-09-02. Sold as day bundles from €1.
Year-end top LLM, best AI coding model, top-ranked model on Chatbot Arena, Humanity’s Last Exam scores, AGI-by-date, model releases and OpenAI hardware.
Every series below is archived at full feed resolution — each contract file carries every trade print (price, size, side) and Level-2 order-book updates in one normalized, zstd-compressed schema. A series-day bundle holds all contracts of the series for one UTC day.
Ranked by USD turnover from our own daily statistics — the series a market maker or bot builder should start with.
| # | Series | Venue | Trades (30d) | Turnover (30d) | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Year-end top LLM | Kalshi | 18,201 | $370.9K | 23 | Buy days |
| 2 | Top model | Kalshi | 2,063 | $65.5K | 23 | Buy days |
| 3 | Claude Model Release | Kalshi | 1,614 | $35.1K | 23 | Buy days |
| 4 | AI Coding | Kalshi | 558 | $14.8K | 23 | Buy days |
| 5 | AI capability spike | Kalshi | 203 | $11.2K | 23 | Buy days |
| 6 | Best AI coding model | Kalshi | 741 | $8.1K | 23 | Buy days |
| 7 | Top-ranked AI | Kalshi | 450 | $5.1K | 23 | Buy days |
| 8 | Humanity's Last Exam | Kalshi | 161 | $3.5K | 23 | Buy days |
| 9 | Will any company achieve AGI before [date]? | Kalshi | 119 | $1.9K | 23 | Buy days |
| 10 | What hardware will openAI/Jony Ive launch | Kalshi | 76 | $381.16 | 23 | Buy days |
Trades and USD turnover summed over every contract of the series, from the recorded tick data; 30 days to 2026-09-02. Series without statistics in the window are omitted.
From the live prediction-movers snapshot (contracts of this topic's series only, settled markets filtered). Intraday — not part of the archived dataset.
| Contract | Venue | Price 24h ago → now | Δ | 24h turnover |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXLLM1-26DEC31-OAI | Kalshi | 0.35 → 0.27 | -0.08 | $15.2K |
Live contracts ranked by absolute 24-hour price change (contracts quote 0..1; settled or near-settled contracts excluded). Snapshot 2026-09-05 11:59 UTC. Full list in the prediction movers.
Largest archive first. Each series page lists its exact coverage, day count and recent days; day bundles are bought in the shop calendar.
| Series | Venue | Interval | Days | Coverage | Size | Price/day | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year-end top LLM | Kalshi | event | 185 | March 2026 – September 2026 | 611 MB | €1 | Buy days |
| Top model | Kalshi | monthly | 185 | March 2026 – September 2026 | 132 MB | €1 | Buy days |
| Claude Model Release | Kalshi | event | 169 | March 2026 – September 2026 | 130 MB | €1 | Buy days |
| AI Coding | Kalshi | event | 180 | March 2026 – September 2026 | 91.3 MB | €1 | Buy days |
| Will any company achieve AGI before [date]? | Kalshi | event | 185 | March 2026 – September 2026 | 79.3 MB | €1 | Buy days |
| Best AI coding model | Kalshi | event | 185 | March 2026 – September 2026 | 55.5 MB | €1 | Buy days |
| Top-ranked AI | Kalshi | event | 185 | March 2026 – September 2026 | 47.9 MB | €1 | Buy days |
| Humanity's Last Exam | Kalshi | event | 108 | May 2026 – September 2026 | 44.9 MB | €1 | Buy days |
| AI capability spike | Kalshi | event | 185 | March 2026 – September 2026 | 39.8 MB | €1 | Buy days |
| What hardware will openAI/Jony Ive launch | Kalshi | event | 185 | March 2026 – September 2026 | 21.9 MB | €1 | Buy days |
Yes — year-end top LLM, top-ranked and top-coding-model series (Chatbot Arena based), Humanity’s Last Exam score ladders, AGI-by-date, model-release timing, capability-spike and hardware-launch markets. Polymarket’s "which company has the best AI model" families are archived under their own slugs.
One purchase covers every contract of a series for one UTC day — tick-by-tick trades plus Level-2 order-book updates per contract — typically €1 per series-day.
Coverage runs March 2026 – September 2026 — 1,752 series-days across 10 series on Kalshi. Each series page lists its exact span.
Yes — trades export as gzipped CSV or Parquet at no extra cost, with integer microsecond UTC timestamps that load straight into pandas, polars or DuckDB. Kalshi records full order-book depth without a separate BBO stream, so book data ships in the native tick file — the free reader script converts it locally. See the formats overview.
Typically €1 per series-day bundle — every contract of the series for that UTC day, with invoice on checkout. Pick days in the shop calendar.