Geopolitics Prediction Market Data — Kalshi
Tick-by-tick trades and L2 order-book depth for 9 Geopolitics series on Kalshi — Abraham Accords, Palestine recognition, Strait of Hormuz traffic, US withdrawals from international organizations, Putin–Trump meeting location, Secretary of State visits, travel-advisory downgrades, Nobel Peace Prize. 1,946 series-days covering March 2026 – present; 35.5K trades · $1.3M turnover over the last 30 captured days. Every contract captured co-located with nanosecond venue and receive timestamps — sold as day bundles, €1 per day, bought as a guest with instant download.
Geopolitics on Kalshi
Ceasefires, sanctions, recognitions, treaty and organization exits, Strait of Hormuz traffic, summits and state visits.
Every series below is archived at full feed resolution — each contract file carries every trade print (price, size, side) and Level-2 order-book updates in one normalized, zstd-compressed schema. A series-day bundle holds all contracts of the series for one UTC day.
Most traded Geopolitics series (last 30 days)
Ranked by USD turnover from our own daily statistics — the series a market maker or bot builder should start with.
| # | Series | Venue | Trades (30d) | Turnover (30d) | Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz | Kalshi | 8,765 | $691.7K | 30 | Buy days |
| 2 | When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? | Kalshi | 8,611 | $331.4K | 30 | Buy days |
| 3 | Nobel Peace Prize | Kalshi | 17,236 | $221.5K | 26 | Buy days |
| 4 | Abraham Accord Saudi Arabia | Kalshi | 527 | $13.6K | 30 | Buy days |
| 5 | Putin DJT meeting location | Kalshi | 73 | $1.3K | 30 | Buy days |
| 6 | Secretary of State visits | Kalshi | 79 | $1.2K | 30 | Buy days |
| 7 | Which countries will receive a lower US Travel Advisory level in 2026? | Kalshi | 107 | $255.36 | 30 | Buy days |
| 8 | U.S. withdrawing from international organizations | Kalshi | 37 | $206.29 | 30 | Buy days |
| 9 | Palestine recognition | Kalshi | 45 | $99.06 | 30 | Buy days |
Trades and USD turnover summed over every contract of the series, from the recorded tick data; 30 days to 2026-10-13. Series without statistics in the window are omitted.
Geopolitics — development since capture
64,755 trades and $2.3M of USD turnover across 9 series since 2026-08-09; busiest single series-day 2026-10-09 with $101.9K, biggest contract KXNOBELPEACE-27-YNAV (2026-10-09, $76.1K).
| Month | Series active | Days | Trades | Turnover (USD) | Avg / day | Contracts traded | L2 updates | vs previous month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 (month to date) | 9 | 13 | 20,977 | $596.8K | $45.9K | 781 | 4.0M | — |
| Sep 2026 | 9 | 30 | 22,911 | $940.7K | $31.4K | 1,299 | 5.3M | +24.1 % |
| Aug 2026 | 9 | 23 | 20,867 | $758.1K | $33.0K | 866 | 4.6M | — |
Geopolitics series — trades and USD turnover summed per calendar month (UTC) over every contract, from our own daily statistics of the recorded tick data. Days = captured UTC days; a partial month shows no month-over-month change. Contracts traded and L2 (order-book) updates exist for days captured with the extended statistics.
Geopolitics — turnover by weekday
Fridays are the busiest day at about $55.0K of USD turnover, averaged over the captured days of the last 30.
| Weekday (UTC) | Avg turnover / day | USD | Avg trades | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | $45.1K | 1.2K | 5 | |
| Tuesday | $54.4K | 1.1K | 5 | |
| Wednesday | $37.5K | 974.25 | 4 | |
| Thursday | $37.7K | 1.3K | 4 | |
| Friday | $55.0K | 2.1K | 4 | |
| Saturday | $27.4K | 761 | 4 | |
| Sunday | $33.4K | 879.25 | 4 |
Geopolitics series — average USD turnover and trades per weekday over the captured days of the last 30, from our own daily statistics; weekdays without a captured day show —.
Rising Geopolitics series — 30 days vs the 30 before
| # | Series | Venue | Turnover (30d) | Prior 30d | Growth (avg / day) | Trades (30d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nobel Peace Prize | Kalshi | $221.5K | $9.5K | +2586.1 % | 17,236 |
| 2 | Abraham Accord Saudi Arabia | Kalshi | $13.6K | $2.7K | +407.5 % | 527 |
| 3 | Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz | Kalshi | $691.7K | $190.8K | +262.5 % | 8,765 |
| 4 | When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? | Kalshi | $331.4K | $585.9K | −43.4 % | 8,611 |
Growth of average USD turnover per captured day, the 30 days to 2026-10-13 against the 30 days before; series need ≥ 10 captured days in both windows and ≥ $10K of turnover in the current one. From our own daily statistics.
Geopolitics prediction markets — trades and turnover per day
Every captured UTC day of the last 30, summed over the 9 Geopolitics series — how much these markets trade day by day, from our own tick capture.
| UTC day | Series with stats | Contracts traded | Trades | Turnover | Buy share | L2 updates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | 8 | 49 | 835 | $28.2K | 32 % | 272.8K |
| 2026-10-12 | 8 | 42 | 805 | $46.1K | 86 % | 462.8K |
| 2026-10-11 | 8 | 39 | 425 | $32.6K | 85 % | 152.9K |
| 2026-10-10 | 8 | 44 | 445 | $9.2K | 51 % | 116.0K |
| 2026-10-09 | 9 | 94 | 6,115 | $116.7K | 66 % | 896.3K |
| 2026-10-08 | 9 | 71 | 2,947 | $76.8K | 87 % | 415.9K |
| 2026-10-07 | 9 | 58 | 1,801 | $35.9K | 73 % | 406.4K |
| 2026-10-06 | 9 | 71 | 1,467 | $54.8K | 54 % | 293.0K |
| 2026-10-05 | 9 | 68 | 1,995 | $49.2K | 45 % | 266.3K |
| 2026-10-04 | 9 | 64 | 1,260 | $38.4K | 37 % | 167.9K |
| 2026-10-03 | 9 | 62 | 1,068 | $38.4K | 27 % | 128.4K |
| 2026-10-02 | 9 | 60 | 854 | $36.9K | 49 % | 164.5K |
| 2026-10-01 | 9 | 59 | 960 | $33.7K | 63 % | 297.8K |
| 2026-09-30 | 9 | 61 | 728 | $57.1K | 82 % | 285.5K |
| 2026-09-29 | 9 | 66 | 975 | $53.4K | 58 % | 426.0K |
| 2026-09-28 | 9 | 48 | 1,063 | $42.7K | 57 % | 265.6K |
| 2026-09-27 | 9 | 45 | 686 | $27.1K | 57 % | 157.2K |
| 2026-09-26 | 9 | 60 | 840 | $33.5K | 50 % | 214.5K |
| 2026-09-25 | 9 | 51 | 840 | $50.8K | 73 % | 237.0K |
| 2026-09-24 | 9 | 44 | 657 | $23.9K | 85 % | 155.6K |
| 2026-09-23 | 9 | 40 | 677 | $31.5K | 60 % | 252.9K |
| 2026-09-22 | 9 | 50 | 1,095 | $80.7K | 78 % | 264.6K |
| 2026-09-21 | 9 | 48 | 1,080 | $46.1K | 43 % | 293.0K |
| 2026-09-20 | 9 | 46 | 1,146 | $35.6K | 47 % | 373.8K |
| 2026-09-19 | 9 | 40 | 691 | $28.6K | 68 % | 205.9K |
| 2026-09-18 | 9 | 46 | 724 | $15.6K | 28 % | 89.7K |
| 2026-09-17 | 9 | 35 | 552 | $16.2K | 59 % | 215.5K |
| 2026-09-16 | 9 | 37 | 691 | $25.7K | 39 % | 324.2K |
| 2026-09-15 | 9 | 43 | 1,008 | $54.7K | 51 % | 193.7K |
| 2026-09-14 | 9 | 51 | 1,050 | $41.1K | 68 % | 64.2K |
Per UTC day, summed over every Geopolitics series that has statistics for that day, from every trade print of every contract in our tick archive. Trades and USD turnover are exact; contracts traded, buy share and L2 (order-book) updates exist for days captured with the extended statistics — earlier days show —.
Most traded Geopolitics contracts on 2026-10-13
The single event contracts with the most USD turnover on the newest captured day — with open and close price and the outcome implied by the last print.
Single contracts ranked by USD turnover on 2026-10-13 (UTC), from every trade print in our tick archive. Prices quote 0..1; the implied outcome reads the last print of the day (≥ 0.97 Yes/Up, ≤ 0.03 No/Down) — venues publish the official result. Each contract’s day file is sold individually, the whole series day as a bundle.
Kalshi Geopolitics series
Largest archive first. Each series page lists its exact coverage, day count and recent days; day bundles are bought in the shop calendar.
| Series | Venue | Interval | Days | Coverage | Size | Price/day | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? | Kalshi | event | 211 | March 2026 – present | 423 MB | €1 | Buy days |
| Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz | Kalshi | event | 171 | April 2026 – present | 353 MB | €1 | Buy days |
| Nobel Peace Prize | Kalshi | event | 220 | March 2026 – present | 113 MB | €1 | Buy days |
| Abraham Accord Saudi Arabia | Kalshi | event | 224 | March 2026 – present | 104 MB | €1 | Buy days |
| Palestine recognition | Kalshi | event | 224 | March 2026 – present | 72.3 MB | €1 | Buy days |
| Which countries will receive a lower US Travel Advisory level in 2026? | Kalshi | annual | 224 | March 2026 – present | 55.7 MB | €1 | Buy days |
| Putin DJT meeting location | Kalshi | event | 224 | March 2026 – present | 34.1 MB | €1 | Buy days |
| Secretary of State visits | Kalshi | event | 224 | March 2026 – present | 33.6 MB | €1 | Buy days |
| U.S. withdrawing from international organizations | Kalshi | event | 224 | March 2026 – present | 20.3 MB | €1 | Buy days |
Why buy Geopolitics prediction-market data here
Four things every page on this site is built on — and the reason the numbers above exist at all.
We record everything
The complete public feed of each venue as it was published: every Level-2 snapshot and update at the venue's full book depth, every trade with its aggressor side, every quote, funding, mark-price and liquidation event — for every instrument the venue lists, every UTC day since we added the venue. Nothing sampled, no top-N cut, no on-demand capture.
Institutional grade
Captured co-located at the venue with the exchange timestamp and our receive timestamp in integer nanoseconds, an event-id chain that makes any gap visible, and one normalized schema across 35+ venues — the same capture our own high-frequency trading engine and enterprise feeds run on.
€1 per instrument-day
Any instrument-day is €1, series-day bundles start at €1 — no subscription, no minimum order, no tiers to unlock. Credit packs lower the effective price and never expire, and every venue has free full-day samples to test against first.
Self-service for everyone
Pick the days in the Data Shop, pay by card as a guest and download immediately — no sales call, no enterprise contract, no KYC. Coding agents buy the same files through the MCP server, and the free Agent Skill teaches them the format.
Agents: /llms.txt · MCP server /mcp · every page as markdown via Accept: text/markdown
Geopolitics prediction-market data — FAQ
Which geopolitical markets are covered?
Kalshi series on the Abraham Accords, Palestine recognition, Strait of Hormuz traffic (normalization and weekly counts), US withdrawals from international bodies, summit locations, Secretary of State visits, travel-advisory downgrades and the Nobel Peace Prize.
How is this data sold?
One purchase covers every contract of the series for one UTC day — every trade print and the complete Level-2 book per contract, captured co-located with nanosecond timestamps — €1 per series-day, bought as a guest with instant download.
How far back does the Geopolitics data go?
Coverage runs March 2026 – present — 1,946 series-days across 9 series on Kalshi. Each series page lists its exact span.
Can I get Geopolitics prediction-market data as CSV or Parquet?
Yes — trades export as gzipped CSV or Parquet at no extra cost, with integer microsecond UTC timestamps that load straight into pandas, polars or DuckDB. Kalshi records full order-book depth without a separate BBO stream, so book data ships in the native tick file — the free reader script converts it locally. See the formats overview.
How much does Geopolitics prediction-market data cost?
€1 per series-day bundle — every contract of the series for that UTC day — no subscription, no minimum order. Pick days in the shop calendar, pay as a guest, download immediately.
Do I need an account or a sales call?
No. Pick the Geopolitics series-days in the Data Shop, pay by card as a guest and download immediately — no subscription, no minimum order, no KYC, no enterprise contract, no sales call. Coding agents buy the same bundles through the MCP server.
How is the Geopolitics data captured?
Co-located at the venue, message by message: every Level-2 update and every trade print carries the exchange timestamp and our receive timestamp in integer nanoseconds, an event-id chain makes any gap visible, and one normalized schema across 35+ venues means a parser written for Binance reads these files unchanged. It is the same capture our own high-frequency trading engine runs on — nothing sampled, no top-N cut.
What was the busiest Geopolitics trading day?
2026-10-09 — $101.9K of USD turnover over 5,652 trades in a single series-day. Since our statistics began on 2026-08-09, 9 Geopolitics series recorded 64,755 trades and $2.3M in total; the biggest single contract was KXNOBELPEACE-27-YNAV on 2026-10-09 at $76.1K. Fridays are the busiest weekday at about $55.0K per day.