Kalshi US Iran nuclear deal Historical Data

A series-day bundle contains every US Iran nuclear deal contract that was listed on Kalshi on that UTC day — traded or not — 7 contract files on the latest covered day. Each file carries the full raw feed: every trade print with price, size and side, plus Level-2 order-book updates, in the same zstd-compressed schema as our crypto venues. Event contracts quote 0..1; turnover is USD-normalized.

Coverage runs March 2026 – present — 232 trading days, 322 MB compressed in total. A day typically holds 8 contract files (up to 10 on the busiest day, 5.49 MB). Pick individual days in the shop calendar for €1 each; delivery is an instant per-file download or one archive for the whole day.

The 7 most traded US Iran nuclear deal contracts on 2026-10-21 — 0 closed Yes (≥ 0.97), 1 closed No (≤ 0.03), 6 still open at the last print: 221 trades, $2.0K USD turnover. The busiest contract was KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27 with $1.2K turnover.

Prices quote 0..1 (probability of Yes). Open/high/low/close/VWAP are that UTC day’s trade prints per contract; the implied outcome reads the last print — ≥ 0.97 as Yes, ≤ 0.03 as No, anything between as still open — venues publish the official result. Buy share = taker-buy side of turnover; spread = the contract's turnover-weighted quoted bid-ask spread in cents, top-1 depth = mean best-bid/ask notional per side, L2 updates = order-book level updates recorded for the contract that day. “Settles” is the venue-listed close time of the contract where the venue publishes one (UTC).

On Kalshi, a US Iran nuclear deal contract trades until its event settles, is listed roughly 14 h before it opens, and quotes in 1 ¢ price steps (0..1). Measured on the 7 contracts captured on 2026-10-21.

KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27 traded in 16 of the day’s minutes (01:12–23:55 UTC): 48 trades, $1.5K turnover, opening at 0.110, ranging 0.094–0.140 and closing at 0.130.

Split by election cycle and by race, never at random — months of quotes on one contract are one regime, and a random split leaks the result backwards; validate across races and cycles, not within one. The election-markets guide works thin books, book updates as the main signal and calibration over months through.

Purchased data is for your own use — backtesting, research, analytics and training your own models, in-house or in your own products; the trained models and derived data you build from it are yours. The raw files and tick streams themselves may not be redistributed, resold or published. The full terms are on the data license page.

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